Mixed results for truck production in February, per ACT Research

Class 8 trucks (ACT Research)

ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry report on North American trucks in Classes 5-8 showed mixed results for heavy- and medium-duty production in February.

The Class 8 build rate last month was 1,277 units per day (upd), a 13.9% increase year over year (y/y) but a 7.6% dip month over month (m/m).

Classes 5-7 has a build rate of 872 upd in February, which was down 5.8% y/y but up 5.5% m/m.

Eric Crawford, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst, said that despite the uneven figures, he is encouraged that Class 8 retail sales remain robust and that the February heavy-duty order total rebounded from a particularly weak January.

“Trucking industry demand rolls on seemingly unabated, with retail sales unphased by higher interest rates, as pent-up demand remains for now,” Crawford said. “That said, we expect momentum to shift in second half of [2023] as the Fed continues its aggressive push to subdue inflation.”

Classes 5-7 trucks (ACT Research)

ACT Research said the backlog of unbuilt heavy- and medium-duty orders of Classes 5-8 decreased by 4300 units to 368,800 units total in February, which marked a second consecutive month of decline, with Class 8 backlogs accounting for 230,800 units (a drop of 1.2% from January) and Classes 5-7 backlogs at 138,000 units (a 1.0% dip).

“On a seasonally adjusted basis, and at February’s build rate, the heavy-duty BL/BU ratio remained flat at 7.8 months (8.6 months nominal), and Classes 5-7 BL/BU ratio declined to 7.2 months (7.5 months nominal), from 7.5 months in January,” Crawford said.

He noted that 93,500 units in backlog are scheduled for the second half of 2023, which is about 30% lower than the 133,000 units scheduled for 2022’s second half.